What Comes After Trump’s Strike on Iran
With Iran’s next move uncertain, global markets, regional powers, and the US military prepare for the worst.
The immediate aftermath of US President Donald Trump’s bombing of Iran has rattled global markets, inflamed regional tensions, and left allies and adversaries asking what happens now.
It’s not clear the Trump administration has thought through the consequences. Trump’s impulsive resort to military action and abandonment of diplomacy may make ultimately make it more likely Iran gains a nuclear weapon, not less.
The president’s comments on social media and those of senior administration officials suggest Trump and his team hope Iran will not respond with force and will capitulate to US and Israeli demands it abandon its nuclear ambitions. This looks like wishful thinking, although Iran’s leadership faces critical choices as it continues to exchange blows with Israel
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a press briefing, signaled that diplomacy is effectively off the table for now. ‘The door for diplomacy should be always kept open, but this is not the case right now,’ Araghchi said. ‘It was not Iran, but the US who betrayed diplomacy… they only understand the language of threat and force.’
Oil futures rose and US stock futures continued to decline overnight amid uncertainty about Iran’s response. Gold and the US Dollar rose as investors sought safe haven’s.
Trump’s White House spokesperson announced last week the president, as The East is Red reported, would give diplomacy two weeks to run before deciding whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites as he had been threatening. That turned out to be a deliberate effort by Trump to mislead the Iranians, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal.
The US military and Iran’s Middle East neighbors are now preparing for a range of potential retaliatory actions. Iran still possesses hypersonic ballistic missiles, cyber capabilities, and proxy networks capable of targeting US personnel, allies, and infrastructure.
One immediate flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s parliament has just approved a measure to close the vital oil shipping lane. If finalized by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the move could send oil prices soaring and invite direct confrontation with the US Navy’s 5th Fleet based in Bahrain.
Araghchi is to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday. ‘Russia is a friend of Iran… We always consult with each other and coordinate our positions,’ he said. Analysts believe Tehran may ask the Kremlin to broker a face-saving off-ramp.
Russia President Vladimir Putin in a phone call with Trump last week offered to mediate between the US and Iran. Trump said he rebuffed that suggestion, telling Putin he needs to settle his war with Ukraine first.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei focused his first public response on Israel, saying it had made a ‘grave mistake’ and ‘is being punished right now’ But the broader direction of Iran’s response remains unclear.
The political risks for Trump are mounting. He can ill-afford to be dragged into a wider Middle East war. He received praise from hawkish allies and much of the narrative on US television talk shows over the weekend was aimed at justifying the US strikes. The backlash has been equally swift. Legal experts and members of Congress say the president violated the US Constitution by striking without congressional approval.
Trump spent Sunday monitoring news coverage, rallying support from allies, and lashing out at critics like Republican Representative Thomas Massie, who called the strikes unconstitutional.
‘I feel a bit misled,’ Massie told Fox News in a 23 June interview. ‘I didn't think he would let neocons determine his foreign policy and drag us into another war.’
‘Trump said he would end wars; now he has dragged America into one,’ Senator Chris Van Hollen said in a statement. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in a post on social media called Trump’s actions ‘absolutely and clearly grounds for impeachment.’
The administration’s assertion that Iran’s nuclear program has been ‘completely and totally obliterated’ is coming under scrutiny. Rafael Grossi, head of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, said the real damage to Iran’s underground enrichment site at Fordo ‘remains unknown’ asthe IAEA prepared to hold an emergency meeting on the status of Iran’s uranium stockpile.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. said Iran likely moved key nuclear materials in advance. ‘They understood that he [Trump] was buying time while moving military assets,’ Parsi said, according to Al Jazeera. ‘Where they are is unclear at this point.’ That stockpile, he added, remains Iran’s most valuable bargaining chip, both strategically and diplomatically.
The next 48 to 72 hours will be critical with countries across the region are bracing for blowback. European governments have urged Iran not to escalate, while Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are calling for restraint. Bahrain ordered 70 percent of its government employees to work from home. US bases across the Middle East remain on high alert.
Even so, Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, told Al Jazeerqa that Iran has reasons to avoid striking in Gulf Arab states, where Tehran has sought diplomatic inroads. ‘If Iran were to retaliate against US bases … that would really undermine the progress that’s been made,’ he said.