National People's Congress: Review
President Xi Jinping consolidates power in the Communist Party amid an uncertain economic outlook and security concerns.
Beijing’s annual gathering of the National People’s Congress wrapped up today with President Xi Jinping consolidating power within the Chinese Communist Party and policymakers grappling with a slowing economy.
A “press conference” traditionally given at the end of the Congress by China’s No 2 official, was cancelled for the first time in three decades. A new law was approved giving the Communist Party more executive control of the governing State Council which oversees China’s government agencies. Both are seen diminishing the role of Premier Li Qiang and strengthening President Xi.
"This is a significant shift in the reorganization of executive authority in China," Ryan Mitchell, a law professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told the Reuters news service.
The ongoing structural changes within the Chinese Communist Party are likely to translate into concerns for investors and avoidance of risk, Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore told the BBC.
"There are fewer political checks and balances, there is no transparency,” Wu said.
‘High-quality development’
The People’s Congress showed Beijing officials seeking to project an image of China to the outside world as an engine of growth that is open to foreign investment. In a speech at the start of the session, Premier Li laid out a new economic blueprint that would allow more foreign access to manufacturing and service sectors.
"Beijing is changing how it opens to the world," Neil Thomas, a fellow in Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Reuters.
It wants to attract high-end foreign technology and advanced manufacturing operations to help Chinese companies develop key future industries, Thomas said.
Xi’s emphasis on “high-quality development,” a repeated buzzword at the People s Congress, is intended to produce critical new technologies at home in alignment with perceived security challenges from the US and allies.
“Digital technology is really top of the agenda,” Nis Grünberg, an analyst at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies, told Time magazine. “China is trying to develop its way out of economic hardship.”
But Xi’s economic agenda remains unsure. The Communist Party’s planned Third Plenum – a top-level exposition of its economic agenda -- was supposed to have happened in October but did not, suggesting Xi has not yet settled on a strategy for turning around China’s economy.
“There’s a growing disconnect between official rhetoric and the realities felt by the common man and woman on the ground,” Wen-ti Sung, a political scientist based in Taiwan for the Australian National University, told Time.
Tougher cross-strait stance
This year’s National People’s Congress on Beijing featured tougher language on Taiwan in Premier Li’s opening report.
Li said Beijing would “be firm in advancing the cause of China’s reunification.” dropping the word “peaceful” heard previously in juxtaposition with Taiwan reunification.
Not using the word “peace” combined with the phrase “resolutely opposing Taiwan independence,” signals a stronger stance, Arthur Zhin-Sheng Wang, a professor at Taiwan’s Central Police University, told The Associated Press.
Last year’s work report had more language about promoting the prosperity of both sides as well, while this year only had a brief nod, Wang noted.
Coercive policy
In Taipei, Beijing’s strategy of unification with Taiwan is viewed as coercive but largely political amid an absence of signs China actually is prepared to invade, National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said, according to the Taipei Times.
In the past year, Chinese military intimidation against Taiwan has become normalized with Chinese combat-ready patrols of 10 fighter jets, other aircraft and three to four warships seen in the Taiwan Strait every seven to ten days, Tsai said.
Taiwan officials have had “discussions” with international allies on whether a Chinese invasion is imminent, but there is “currently no intelligence indicating an imminent war in the Taiwan Strait,” Tsai said.
Rather, Beijing appears to be using military patrols as an expression of displeasure with Taiwan interacting with other nations, and when foreign ships patrol the Taiwan Strait, Tsai said according to the report.
Beijing has been signaling the overall importance of “reunification” while avoiding an overly rigid or near-term timeline that would limit its flexibility and options, according to a mid-2023 analysis by the Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Meanwhile, Taiwan’s military is considering acquisition of 200 armed, unmanned sea drones to counter or deter Chinese People’s Liberation warships and landing craft near Taiwan, the Taipei Times reported.
One of the lessons learned from Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion is that small, fast sea drones can be effective weapons against larger naval ships, although the Black Sea domain is smaller and more controlled than the Pacific.
China assesses a Trump 2.0
Beijing is assessing what a second Trump presidency would mean for confrontation and competition with the US.
The former president is positioned to claim the Republican nomination following primary election wins on ‘Super Tuesday’ in the US last week. Trump has threatened to impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods and would pursue an ‘America First’ unilateralism in world affairs.
That potentially could mean the US fading military support for Ukraine, disrupting NATO and other alliances, and backing away from the Biden administration’s security assurances to Taiwan and other Pacific allies.
Communist Party officials are likely engaged in “scenario-planning and evidence-informed analyses” of the implications of a Trump win, according to Brian Wong, a fellow at the Hong Kong University Centre on Contemporary China and the World.
The former president’s return to office would “pose greater tail-end risks when it comes to accidental kinetic escalation induced by posturing from either Beijing or Washington,” Wong told CNN.
A second Biden term would see a “more successful multi-lateral, concerted effort aimed at containing China,” with a “tacit agreement to not allow for unbridled escalation over Taiwan and the South China Sea,” Wong said.
— William Roberts