Israel-Iran Conflict Simmers as Trump Announces Ceasefire
Iranian missile strike in Israel kills four, Israeli jets pound targets in Tehran.
President Donald Trump declared that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire, ending what he called a ‘12-day war’. In a social media post, he congratulated both sides, saying the conflict ‘could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East’.
For now, fighting appears to have slowed. But without a formal and mutual confirmation of the ceasefire, and with Israeli jets still in the skies over Tehran, the conflict may not be over yet.
Iran appeared to confirm it would stop its missile attacks against Israel but there was no immediate confirmation of a ceasefire from Israel. Rather, both sides continued hostilities, at least initially. Iran launched a wave of missiles at Israel, killing four and wounding others in Be’er-Sheva in southern Israel.
Israeli jets continued to pound Iranian targets and the Israeli Air Force urged evacuations of central districts, including areas around bank and government offices. ‘There are still a wide range of targets that Israel wants to strike inside Iran,’ one official told Israeli media.
Tehran residents speaking live on ClubHouse described Israeli jets flying overhead and loud, continuous explosions, according to The New York Times. ‘The Mehrabad airport nearby is being struck back to back,’ Mostafa Shams, a journalist in Tehran, told the forum. ‘I can see the jets and hear them.’
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suggested in a social media post that Iranian operations would cease counterattacks on Israel at 4 am local time Tuesday, saying, ‘The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4am.’ In a prior post, he had denied any formal agreement, writing: ‘As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations.’
Earlier, Araghchi met in Moscow with Russia President Vladimir Putin who appeared to be positioning himself as a potential mediator between the US and Iran. Putin offered rhetorical support for Tehran but did not make any military or economic commitments. Moscow’s posture shows the limits of the partnership Iran has forged with Russia in its war against Ukraine.
Iran launched a limited missile attack on the US military’s Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, home to 10,000 US troops and major operation center for the US’s Central Command. The retaliatory strike caused no casualties and Trump said Iran had given advance warning, dismissing it as a ‘very weak response’.
Qatar, which among Gulf Arab states has maintained closer ties with Tehran, reportedly played a key role in brokering the ceasefire, working closely with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. The talks, led by President Trump and mediated by the Emir of Qatar, resulted in a deal under which Iran would stop firing if Israel halted its strikes, a senior White House official told US reporters. ‘Iran signaled that no further attacks would take place,’ the official said.
In Washington, DC, opposition Democrats in Congress, concerned Trump might pursue a wider campaign of regime change against the Iranians, introduced a War Powers Resolution aimed at curbing any further escalation by Trump. ‘No thoughtful deliberation nor careful planning occurred here — and serious actions demand serious debate, not presidential impulse,’ the lawmakers said in a joint statement. In a memo sent to lawmakers Monday, Trump said he acted ‘to advance vital United States national interests, and in collective self-defense of our ally, Israel.’
Market reaction to the apparent de-escalation was swift. Oil futures, which had spiked over the weekend, plunged more than 7 percent on Monday to below $65 a barrel in after-hours trading. The drop wiped out all gains since fighting began. US equities rallied. The S&P 500 and the Dow both gained. Asian shares rallied on Tuesday and US equity futures pointed upward.
Warnings against triumphalism
Analysts warn that the situation remains volatile.
Intelligence officials say the location of a stockpile of Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium is unknown. ‘The longer the location of this highly enriched uranium remains unknown, the greater the potential for a proliferation crisis,’ Joseph Rodgers, deputy director of nuclear issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, warned.
‘The story does not end. Force invites counterforce. Success generates reactions that yield its opposite. The closer Israel gets to total triumph, the closer it will be to complete uncertainty, to perils unleashed by pent-up humiliation, anger, and fury. That sort of victory is not a safe place,’ Hussein Agha and Robert Malley warn in Foreign Affairs.
Agha has been involved in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations for more than three decades. Malley served in the Biden administration as a Special Envoy for Iran and in the Obama administration as White House Middle East Coordinator.
‘Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will seek revenge. The attacks in Qatar and Iraq are a reminder to the Americans that the regime still has resolve. It can still strike back, hoping to rehabilitate its battered red-lines. Mr. Khamenei seeks again to blend caution with aggression,’ Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh write in The Wall Street Journal.
Gerecht is a resident scholar at the pro-Israel Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Takeyh is a former State Department senior adviser on Iran in the Obama administration.
‘This project may be illusory, as the war could instead trigger a resurgence of Iranian nationalism and patriotism, offer a reprieve to the Islamic Republic and provoke political changes in Iran and the region that would not be favorable to Israel,’ Bernard Hourcade, a retired senior research fellow at the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Paris, writes in Le Monde.
UK’s PM Embarrassed
Trump’s decision to bomb Iran took Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the UK government by surprise, according to reporting by The Times of London. Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy had been convinced that there was a ‘window of opportunity’ to attempt to de-escalate the conflict.
They appeared to have taken Trump at his word when the White House suggested on Thursday there would be a pause to ensure that there was a ‘chance for substantial negotiations’, according to The Times.
On Tuesday, Starmer had been adamant that Trump would not intervene in Iran, saying he had ‘no doubt’ about the matter after sitting next to the US president for two hours at the G7 summit in Canada.
Starmer was informed of the US strikes in a telephone call only 40 minutes before the bombs started falling. Speaking to MPs in the House of Commons on Monday, Lammy would not say whether the UK government supported the US strikes, or whether they complied with international law.