China opens diplomatic channel with Ukraine
Beijing positions as peace broker ahead of Xi's travel to Moscow as Kyiv prepares counter-offensive
(Updated Friday, 11 am, to include details of Xi’s travel to Moscow in 11-12th paragraphs.)
China Foreign Minister Qin Gang held a telephone call on Thursday with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, opening a new diplomatic channel between the two as China President Xi Jinping prepares to visit Moscow amid the Russian war on Ukraine.
“China is worried about the delayed escalation of the crisis and the possibility of it getting out of control,” Qin told Kuleba according to a Chinese readout of the call.
“We hope that all parties will remain calm, rational, and restrained, resume peace talks as soon as possible, and push for a return to the track of political settlement. It is hoped that Ukraine and Russia will retain hope for dialogue and negotiation, and no matter how difficult and challenging they are, they will not close the door to a political settlement,” Qin reportedly said.
Kuleba described the present situation in Ukrainian and thanked China for its recent position paper promoting a potential ceasefire and cessation of war, according to the Chinese report. He said he “hopes to maintain communication with China.”
Kubela put out a short tweet acknowledging the call and emphasizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s terms for peace talks, which include withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
Kubela also spoke by telephone on Thursday with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. They discussed the “latest situation on the battlefield” and US support for Ukraine’s forces, according to the US State Department. Kubela said in a tweet they talked about “Ukraine’s peace formula” and “ways to expedite the delivery of artillery ammunition.”
“We are working with the US and other partners around the clock to ensure that Ukraine has all of the ammunition we need for defense and counter-offensive operations,” Kubela said.
Casualties in the war have been high with British intelligence estimating up to 200,000 Russians troops and 60,000 Ukrainians killed, although these numbers have not been confirmed by either side. More than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed, according to UN estimates. Eight million refugees have fled the country and another five million are internally displaced.
The International Criminal Court is preparing to bring war crime charges against Russian officials for forcibly removing as many as 6,000 Ukrainian children and for deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure. Ukraine is asking for a special international tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes which have include mass killings, rapes and torture.
The US and NATO allies have been training Ukrainian forces how to use Western tanks and armored vehicles in preparation for an expected spring counter offensive. Russian attacks along the eastern front in Ukraine have slowed in recent days, according to the Institute for the Study of War and Ukrainian intelligence is reporting the Russian military is preparing for a defense of Crimea.
Xi to visit Moscow next week
President Xi will visit Moscow on March 20-22 for a state visit with Russia President Vladimir Putin, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on Friday. Xi and Putin plan an informal meeting and lunch on Monday, followed by “in-depth” negotiations on Tuesday and will sign several bilateral agreements.
“China will uphold an objective and fair position on the Ukraine crisis and play a constructive role in promoting talks for peace,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a press briefing in Beijing.
Beijing has issued a 12-point framework for reaching a ceasefire and potential peace talks and appears to be positioning to play a diplomatic role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A Pentagon spokesman said Thursday the US has seen no evidence China has moved forward with arms transfers following US intelligence reports of talk in China of providing Russia with weapons.
“At this time, we have not seen the transfer yet of any lethal assistance from China to Russia for use on the battlefield,” Brig Gen Pat Ryder told reporters at the Pentagon on Thursday. “It's something that we're keeping a very close eye on.”
The US has warned China not to provide Russia with weapons for the war in Ukraine.
Shortly before the Russian invasion began last year, Putin visited Beijing for meetings with Xi. At the time, the two sides declared a “no-limits” strategic partnership. Chinese officials have refused to condemn Moscow’s invasion, complained about Western sanctions and blamed NATO expansion for the war which they call the “Ukraine crisis”.
North Korea launches missile as Japan, South Korea meet
North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile early Thursday as the leaders of Japan and South Korea held a summit in Tokyo – the first in 12 years -- to repair ties and join forces against a rising China.
The missile launch was first reported by South Korean and Japanese military officials. North Korea later said that it had launched a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the waters off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula.
North Korean state media said the launch was a response to the joint US-South Korean military exercises underway now through March 23 that have included B-1B supersonic bombers. Pyongyang views such drills as rehearsals for a US-led invasion, while US and South Korean officials say they are defensive in nature.
In Beijing, China’s Foreign Ministry defended North Korea’s missile launch and cited the US’s recently announced decision to deploy nuclear-powered US submarines to Australia.
“Recently, the US and some other countries have held large-scale joint military exercises in the region, constantly increased the frequency of strategic weapons deployment, and made arrangements to transfer nuclear submarines to another country,” Wang said.
“The negative impact of such moves on the Korean Peninsula situation is worrying. What the situation on the Korean Peninsula calls for is reducing the temperature, not fanning the flames. Relevant parties need to stay committed to the direction of political settlement and move forward on the right path of easing tensions and resuming dialogue,” he said.
‘Escalatory Security Dilemma’
China also recently warned the Philippines against allowing the US military basing rights. In February, Manila agreed to allow the US access to four Philippine military bases under a 2014 defense cooperation agreement.
“It points to the escalatory security dilemma that now underpins China-US relations, in which both sides view the other’s actions as deeply threatening, while seeing their own as defensive and wholly justified,” Sebastian Strangio, Southeast Asia editor at The Diplomat newspaper wrote.
The head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Adm John Aquilino, speaking at an event in Singapore on Thursday, said he has not been able to establish a communication protocol with commanders of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern and Southern Theater commands.
“I have not yet received a response for a year-and-a-half to accept my request for a conversation,” Aquilino said, according to a report in Defense News. “I’ve not received a ‘no.’ I’ve not received a ‘wait, could we adjust?’ I’ve just received no answer.”
“We have continued to ask because I do think it is important. But it’s concerning to me I don’t have the ability to talk to someone, should there be a reason to talk,” he said.
In February, China’s Defense Ministry refused a call from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after the US Air Force shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon that had crossed the continental US. The incident led to cancellation of Secretary Blinken’s plans to visit Beijing.
Spent Chinese rocket disintegrates over Texas
Part of a Chinese rocket used to launch spy satellites into space disintegrated over Texas in early March, according to a report in the Houston Chronicle.
A Chang Zheng 2D ‘Long March’ rocket was launched in June 2022 from China to carry three military surveillance satellites into orbit.
The rocket's second stage circled the Earth for eight months before punching through the atmosphere and disintegrating, according to the US Space Command.
“This was an uncontrolled reentry, meaning it was not steered but rather its orbit decayed and lowered naturally. This type of behavior reinforces the need for better international norms regarding high-risk uncontrolled reentries,” Space Command said.