Blinken to visit Ukraine today: Report
Unannounced trip follows $250 mln, US military aid package as war grinds in east and Russia seeks arms from North Korea.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, today on an unannounced visit, according to a Ukraine media report citing diplomatic sources.
Secretary Blinken’s visit would come as US military officials have raised doubts about Ukraine’s counteroffensive and follows President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sacking of the country’s defense minister.
Citing the need for “new approaches,” Zelenskyy announced earlier this week he would replace Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov – who “has gone through more than 550 days of full-scale war” -- with Rustem Umerov, chairman of the state investment fund.
In the east, Ukrainian forces have been driving toward the strategic city of Melitopol, breaking through Russia trench systems and moving beyond anti-tank obstacles in the settlement of Robotyne, Ukrainian military officials said.
State Department spokesman Vedant Patel told reporters in Washington he could not confirm the secretary’s reported travel. “I don’t have any updates on any official trip from the State Department” Patel said at a briefing.
Blinken had no public appointments on September 5. The Ukrainian news outlet ZN.UA did not offer any details about Blinker’s trip in its report.
Last week, the State Department announced a new, $250 million package of military support for Ukraine including AIM-9M missiles, HIMARS munitions, Javelin systems, and other material.
The aid package includes 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, mine-clearing equipment, various anti-tank systems and rockets, over 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition, ambulances, demolition munitions for obstacle clearing, as well as spare parts, services, training, and transportation.
"Russia started this war and could end it at any time by withdrawing its forces from Ukraine and stopping its brutal attacks. Until it does, the United States and our allies and partners will stand united with Ukraine, for as long as it takes," Blinken said in a statement.
In mid-August the US approved Denmark and The Netherlands sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine once training of pilots is complete. A coalition of 11 countries are training Ukrainian airmen to fly the F-16s. That is not expected to yield results before early 2024.
Russia, North Korea cooperating
Russia is seeking to include North Korea in three-way naval drills with China, according to a South Korean lawmaker who spoke to The Associated Press following a closed-door briefing with the director of South Korea’s top spy agency.
“According to lawmaker Yoo Sang-bum, when South Korean National Intelligence Service Director Kim Kyou-hyun was asked about the possibility of such drills, he said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu likely proposed holding trilateral naval exercises with North Korea and China while meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in July.”
In Washington, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby said last week Russia and North Korea were discussing an arms trade likely to involve North Korean supplies of artillery and ammunition for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine.
An arms supply arrangement between North Korea and Russia would be seen as likely to prolong the conflict in Ukraine. It would escalate tensions in the nuclear standoff between North Korea and the US on the Korean peninsula. And it would further complicate US and European efforts to keep China from joining the conflict.
US, Vietnam set to expand ties
With President Joe Biden preparing to visit Vietnam on September 10, the US and Vietnam have room to expand defense cooperation but Washington must work with Hanoi's sensitivities toward China, according to two academics in the region.
Tran Nguyen Quan, a maritime research associate and Jeffrey Ordaniel, associate professor of international security studies at Tokyo International University, write that the US can help Vietnam beyond recent steps to modernize its coast guard.
“Out of concern for Beijing's response, Hanoi has largely confined its direct purchases of US weapons so far to armaments for the Vietnam Coast Guard. This though has benefited its South China Sea capabilities.”
“By working with Hanoi's China-sensitivity threshold, the US and Vietnam can focus on concrete deliverables that serve both sides' national security interests and actually strengthen Hanoi's agency and ability to withstand Chinese pressure. Vietnam for now will not abandon its traditional deference to Beijing, especially given lingering doubts over US commitment to the relationship.”
US arms sales to Vietnam would likely require human rights waivers under US law. Advocacy group Human Rights Watch says Vietnam’s record “remains dire in virtually all areas.”
Biden’s visit to Hanoi is set to follow the upcoming G20 summit in New Dehli. Whether the president is able to travel is in question following First Lady Jill Biden’s recent COVID diagnosis. The president so far has tested negative, White House officials say.
China’s economy slowing
China’s economy continues to show signs of slowing even as policymakers in Beijing take steps to boost demand and consumption.
China's exports likely contracted again in August, a Reuters economic poll showed on Tuesday.
Data for August are expected to show a 9.2 percent fall in exports from a year earlier, following a drop of 14.5 percent in July, according to the median forecast of 33 economists in the poll.
Imports are expected to have shrunk by 9 percent, after dropping 12.4 percent in July, reflecting slightly improved domestic demand.
Meanwhile, China’s factory activity shrank in August for a fifth straight month.
According to data from Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) remained in contraction territory at 49.7 in August, up slightly from 49.3 in July.
A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in activity, while a reading above 50 would point to expansion.
— William Roberts